Nonconditional logistic regression analysis of risk factors in rheumatic heart disease

The prognostic risk factors in 4323 patients with rheumatic heart disease, admitted from 1970 to 1990, were analysed. The overall mortality was 31.75% in this group of patients. Single factor analysis indicated that cardiac functional classification, time of death, month of death, cardiothoracic ratio, valvular lesions, cardiogenic shock, digitalis-induced arrhythmias, intercurrent pneumonia, pleurorrhea, and hypotension were related to the overall mortality and cardiac death. Multiple factor logistic analysis indicated that for the overall mortality, the independent prognostic factors included presence of cardiac functional classification, cardiothoracic ratio and cardiogenic shock; for cardiac death, the independent factors included cardiac functional classification, cardiothoracic ratio, cardiogenic shock, digitalis-induced arrhythmias and valvular lesions. The data analysis showed that these five factors were contributory to rheumatic heart disease with synergism.