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Future longevity-demographic concerns and consequences.

Kevin G Kinsella1

  • 1Population Division, International Programs Center, Bureau of the Census, Washington Plaza 2, Rm. 312, Washington, DC 20233, USA. kevin.g.kinsella@census.gov

Journal of the American Geriatrics Society
|September 1, 2005
PubMed
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Gerontology debates human life expectancy trends. Future projections suggest significant increases, but uncertainties in mortality, fertility, and migration remain critical policy considerations.

Area of Science:

  • Gerontology
  • Demography
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Ongoing debate on the future trajectory of human life expectancy.
  • Past century saw dramatic increases in life expectancy, but with irregular declines in mortality.
  • Factors like epidemics and sociopolitical changes can reverse mortality declines.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze issues in projecting future older populations.
  • To focus on the future course of mortality trends.
  • To examine the potential for sustained increases in life expectancy.

Main Methods:

  • Review of scientific findings on mortality trajectories.
  • Analysis of demographic projections, including United Nations' 300-year outlook.
  • Consideration of factors influencing life expectancy, such as social interventions and chemical entities.

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Main Results:

  • Mortality at very old ages may decline; old-age mortality is alterable by social interventions.
  • The number of centenarians is rapidly increasing globally.
  • New projections indicate a potential 25-year rise in North American life expectancy over three centuries.

Conclusions:

  • Future life expectancy projections are highly uncertain.
  • Assumptions about future mortality must be integrated with potential changes in fertility and migration for policy.
  • Sustained increases in life expectancy are plausible but depend on managing various demographic factors.