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Prediction of UGIB event in NSAID users: a model development
Mayuree Tangkiatkumjai1, Somratai Vadcharavivad, Varocha Mahachai
1Faculty of Pharmacy, Srinakharinwirot University, Nakhonnayok 26120, Thailand.
Journal of the Medical Association of Thailand = Chotmaihet Thangphaet
|September 10, 2005
Summary
This study developed a tool to predict upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) in nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drug (NSAID) users. Multiple NSAID use and H. pylori infection significantly increase UGIB risk, while antiulceration drugs reduce it.
Area of Science:
- Gastroenterology
- Pharmacology
- Clinical Prediction Modeling
Background:
- Nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are widely used but associated with upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB).
- Predicting UGIB risk in NSAID users is crucial for patient management and pharmacotherapeutic planning.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop and validate a predictive model for upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) events in patients using NSAIDs.
- Identify key risk factors contributing to NSAID-induced UGIB.
Main Methods:
- A case-control study involving 154 NSAID users who underwent gastroscopy.
- Data collected through patient interviews and medical record review.
- Logistic regression analysis used to generate a predictive equation for UGIB probability.
Main Results:
- The final predictive model achieved an 80.2% overall correct classification rate.
- Key predictors of UGIB included multiple NSAID use (strongest factor), H. pylori infection, current NSAID use, and age.
- Antiulceration drug use was found to reduce the risk of UGIB.
Conclusions:
- A validated model can predict UGIB risk in NSAID users, aiding clinical decision-making.
- Multiple NSAID use and H. pylori infection are significant risk factors for NSAID-related UGIB.
- Antiulceration medications appear to offer a protective effect against NSAID-induced UGIB.
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