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Virulence evolution in emerging infectious diseases.

Jean-Baptiste André1, Michael E Hochberg

  • 1Department of Biology, Queen's University, Kingston, Ontario, K7L 3N6, Canada. jeanbaptisteandre@gmail.com

Evolution; International Journal of Organic Evolution
|September 13, 2005
PubMed
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Emerging pathogens are often more virulent in dense populations. Stochastic events and selection can drive a correlation between pathogen virulence and transmissibility during initial adaptation.

Area of Science:

  • Evolutionary biology
  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical modeling

Background:

  • Virulence evolution models typically focus on endemic equilibrium.
  • Initial invasion and adaptation dynamics of emerging diseases are less understood.
  • Understanding early adaptive phases is crucial for timely intervention in new disease outbreaks.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate virulence evolution during the initial stages of pathogen emergence.
  • To explore the role of stochasticity and selection in shaping pathogen traits.
  • To identify factors influencing the virulence and transmissibility of emerging infectious diseases.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized a simple stochastic modeling framework.
  • Simulated the invasion and adaptation of parasite strains.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Analyzed the impact of host population density and transmission rates.

    • Main Results:

    • Pathogen strains with higher net reproductive rates (R0) are more likely to emerge.
    • Mean virulence of emerging pathogens is higher in dense host populations with high transmission.
    • A positive correlation between average virulence and transmissibility arises from drift and selection.

    Conclusions:

    • Stochastic events significantly influence the properties of emerging pathogens.
    • Virulence-transmission correlations can emerge without specific constraints during early adaptation.
    • Virulence management strategies should leverage variation in transmission and virulence to control emerging diseases.