Risk assessment of sexual offenders in German forensic institutions

The assessment of recidivism in sexual offenders is an urgent topic for forensic psychiatry in Germany. The call for useful predictive measures is therefore getting louder.

The present study analyses which criteria are employed by therapists in forensic hospitals to assess the dangerousness of sexual offenders. Of particular interest is whether the criteria listed in presently known prediction scores as decisive are actually used in decision-making in current forensic psychiatric practice.

Data are collected in a prospective prediction study funded by the German Research Association.

The results reveal that therapists employ mainly clinical and less historical criteria, thus indicating substantial differences from currently known prediction scores and results of other studies.

That therapists base their prediction of dangerousness primarily on clinical variables reveals a substantial error that has to be remedied. Further research on the extent of relevance of clinical variables is needed.