Risk assessment model for venothromboembolism in post-hospitalized patients

Venothromboembolism (VTE) is an important condition in hospitalized patients accounting for significant morbidity and mortality, and the risk of VTE often continues post-hospitalization. Although risk assessment models have been developed to predict the risk of deep venous thrombosis (DVT) in hospitalized patients, no models have been developed that determine the risk of DVT during the post-hospitalization period. The objective of this study was to create a risk profile using risk factor assessment that could be used to predict which patients are at highest risk of developing DVT within 60 days following hospital discharge.

The computerized medical records of 380 patients (190 with DVT and 190 without DVT) who received care from 1995-2002 and were subsequently re-hospitalized within 60 days of discharge were retrospectively reviewed. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify risk variables related to VTE. A novel risk assessment model was created using risk factors from the logistic regression analyses.

The prevalence of VTE was found to be 93.2% (69/74) in the high-risk category, 52.9% (109/206) in the moderate-risk category, and 12% (12/100) in the low-risk category.

Once validated, this risk assessment model may be applied to identify patients who may be at increased risk of developing VTE post-hospitalization. Those at high risk should be considered for anticoagulation therapy during the post-hospitalization period. Availability of a risk profile using risk factor assessment to guide decisions related to anticoagulation therapy will have important ramifications relative to patient outcomes including morbidity, mortality, and reductions in VTE-associated cost.