[Forecasting of prevalence of cardio-vascular pathology in children population]

Area of Science:

• Pediatrics
• Public Health
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies pose significant health challenges for children.
• Accurate forecasting of disease trends is crucial for effective public health planning and resource allocation.
• Previous studies have highlighted the need for robust statistical models in pediatric health surveillance.

Purpose of the Study:

• To statistically model and forecast the morbidity, disability, and mortality associated with circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies in children in the Ryazan Oblast.
• To evaluate the reliability of forecasting methods for pediatric health outcomes in the region.
• To identify trends in disease prevalence and inform healthcare capacity planning.

Main Methods:

• Application of exponential smoothing models with linear trend for forecasting.
• Statistical significance testing of predicted values.
• Analysis of morbidity, disability, and mortality data for pediatric populations.

Main Results:

• Exponential smoothing models with linear trend demonstrated reliable forecasting capabilities for the morbidity of circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies in children.
• Higher variance in disability and mortality rates for these conditions in Ryazan Oblast children prevented reliable forecasting of these specific outcomes.
• An increasing trend in morbidity and disability rates was observed, alongside an expansion of the 'dispensary group' (children requiring regular medical supervision).

Conclusions:

• Reliable forecasting of childhood circulatory system diseases and congenital anomalies morbidity is achievable using exponential smoothing.
• The increasing morbidity and disability rates, coupled with an expanding dispensary group, necessitate enhanced medical care capacity and funding.
• Further research into methods for forecasting high-variance outcomes like disability and mortality in pediatric populations is warranted.