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Receiver-operator characteristic, efficiency analysis, and predictive value of serum progesterone concentration as a
B D Cowan1, D T Vandermolen, C A Long
1Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, University of Mississippi Medical Center, Jackson 39216-4505.
Objective:
Our objective was to determine if a discriminatory progesterone concentration could be established that confidently predicted abnormal early gestations.
Study Design:
We analyzed differences in progesterone concentrations between normal (n = 40) and abnormal (n = 34) pregnancies during the first 49 days of gestation. The receiver-operator characteristic curve, test efficiency, and predictive value of serum progesterone to discriminate between an abnormal and normal first-trimester gestation were calculated for progesterone concentrations between 5 and 25 ng/ml.
Results:
Receiver-operator characteristic curve analysis indicated that the best discriminatory progesterone concentration was 10 ng/ml. Test efficiency was maximum between serum progesterone concentration of 9 to 14 ng/ml (80%). When progesterone was less than 10 ng/ml, the predictive value of the abnormal test result was greater than 90%.
Conclusion:
Receiver-operator characteristic analysis, test efficiency, and the predictive value of an abnormal test result suggest that the best progesterone cut off point that predicts abnormal early pregnancies is 10 ng/ml.