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Does falling smoking lead to rising obesity?
Jonathan Gruber1, Michael Frakes
1Department of Economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA 02142-1347, USA. gruberj@mit.edu
Journal of Health Economics
|September 17, 2005
Summary
Reduced smoking does not significantly increase obesity rates. This study found that higher cigarette taxes correlate with lower body weight, challenging previous economic analyses on smoking and weight gain.
Area of Science:
- Public Health
- Health Economics
- Epidemiology
Background:
- A negative correlation between smoking rates and obesity has led to theories that smoking cessation contributes to weight gain.
- Previous economic analyses suggested higher cigarette prices increase body weight.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the relationship between reduced smoking and weight gain in the U.S.
- To re-evaluate the economic impact of smoking on body weight using updated methodologies.
Main Methods:
- Utilized cigarette tax data instead of cigarette prices for analysis.
- Controlled for non-linear time effects to refine the model.
- Examined data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System.
Main Results:
- Found no evidence that reduced smoking leads to increased body weight.
- Observed a negative effect of cigarette taxes on body weight, suggesting reduced smoking correlates with lower body weight.
- Acknowledged that both this study and prior research indicate potentially implausibly large effects of smoking on body weight.
Conclusions:
- The hypothesis that falling smoking rates significantly contribute to rising U.S. obesity rates is not confirmed by this analysis.
- Further research is needed to understand the complex relationship between smoking, taxation, and body weight.
- Economic models may overestimate the impact of smoking cessation on population-level weight changes.