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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
Optimal risk management versus willingness to pay for BVDV control options
J M Santarossa1, A W Stott, R W Humphry
1Animal Health Economics Team, Epidemiology Research Unit, SAC, Research and Development Division, Auchincruive, Ayr KA6 5HW, UK. john.santarossa@sac.ac.uk
Preventive Veterinary Medicine
|September 20, 2005
Summary
Controlling Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) in Scottish cow-calf herds requires balancing cost and risk. Maximizing herd wealth may not ensure optimal animal welfare during BVDV outbreaks.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Risk Analysis
- Animal Health Economics
Background:
- Least-cost strategies for Bovine Viral Diarrhea Virus (BVDV) control in Scottish cow-calf herds may not minimize disease risk.
- Effective assessment of BVDV prevention necessitates considering both risk reduction and decision-maker risk attitudes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To describe a method for assessing BVDV prevention measures that integrates risk reduction and economic decision-making.
- To evaluate the impact of control strategy effectiveness on risk-free financial returns and farmer utility.
- To determine if wealth maximization is an optimal business objective for animal welfare during BVDV outbreaks.
Main Methods:
- A simulation model of BVDV transmission over 10 years in a typical Scottish cow-calf herd was employed.
- Herd infection/re-infection risks were adjusted to reflect biosecurity and vaccination strategies of varying effectiveness.
- Economic utility theory was applied to analyze farmer decision-making under different risk scenarios.
Main Results:
- The effectiveness of BVDV control strategies significantly influenced the level of risk-free financial return that maximized farmer utility.
- Utility maximization based on wealth did not equate to optimal animal welfare outcomes during a BVDV outbreak.
Conclusions:
- Assessing BVDV control requires a nuanced approach that incorporates risk attitudes alongside economic factors.
- Prioritizing financial returns through wealth maximization may compromise animal welfare during disease outbreaks.
- Integrated risk-benefit analysis is crucial for effective BVDV management in livestock herds.
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