Prediction of costs in a selective caries prevention programme

Area of Science:

• Dental Public Health
• Health Economics
• Biostatistics

Background:

• Selective caries prevention programs target high-risk individuals.
• Accurate risk classification is crucial for program cost-effectiveness.
• Misclassification of caries risk can lead to increased program costs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To propose a method for predicting the costs of selective caries prevention programs.
• To incorporate the costs associated with correct and incorrect risk classifications.
• To aid in the selection of optimal decision rules for risk assessment.

Main Methods:

• Development of a logistic regression model to predict high caries increment.
• Calculation of sensitivity (SN) and specificity (SP) for various decision rules (cutpoints).
• Detailed cost analysis considering all four possible classification outcomes (true positive, false positive, true negative, false negative).

Main Results:

• A framework for calculating expected costs based on predicted risk and classification accuracy.
• Demonstration of how to calculate costs for a specific prevention program using the proposed method.
• Identification of the utility of plotting SN, SP, and costs against cutpoints.

Conclusions:

• The proposed method allows for the prediction and anticipation of expected costs in selective caries prevention.
• Visualizing SN, SP, and costs as functions of cutpoints aids in choosing appropriate thresholds.
• This approach supports informed decision-making for implementing and comparing caries prevention strategies.