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Related Experiment Videos

A research model--forecasting incident rates from optimized safety program intervention strategies.

P S Iyer1, J M Haight, E Del Castillo

  • 1The Pennsylvania State University, Department of Energy and Geo-Environmental Engineering, 224 Hosler Building, University Park, PA 16802-5000, United States.

Journal of Safety Research
|October 4, 2005
PubMed
Summary

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New models accurately forecast workplace incidents, enabling optimized safety programs and resource allocation. This helps businesses reduce costs and improve productivity by predicting and preventing injuries.

Area of Science:

  • Industrial safety
  • Occupational health
  • Business analytics

Background:

  • Workplace injuries and property damage incidents are costly, with an estimated $146.6 billion annual cost in the US.
  • Limited company resources necessitate optimizing intervention strategies for cost-effective incident reduction and improved productivity.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and validate models for forecasting incident rates.
  • To assess the predictive accuracy of models based on past performance versus safety program investment.

Main Methods:

  • Systematic data collection and statistical analysis were used to study the time-lag relationship between safety interventions and incident rates.
  • Two forecasting models were developed: one based on historical incident data and another on safety program configuration and effort.

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Main Results:

  • The developed models demonstrated accurate prediction of incident rates over an 18-month period.
  • Comparison in forestry operations at an electricity distribution company validated the models' forecasting capabilities.

Conclusions:

  • These predictive models offer significant potential as business-planning tools for human resource allocation.
  • The models can guide the design of optimized safety and health intervention programs to minimize incidents and inform resource input adjustments.