Predictability of the individual outcome of a physical training program of an Army Special Forces Unit

In a search for parameters that could predict the chances of success in a 3-month basic training program of a Special Forces unit, 293 conscripts were studied before the start of the training period. Physical activities, smoking habits, and dietary and drinking habits were evaluated by questionnaire. Anthropometric values were noted. A blood sample was taken for determination of serum cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol and gamma-glutamyltranspeptidase (GGT). Physical capacity was assessed by bicycle ergometry. Sixty-five trainees were discontinued from the program for intercurrent diseases or trauma, 132 went successfully through the whole program (group S), and 96 trainees failed (group F). More candidates of group S stated that they participated in sports (p less than 0.01) and fewer smoked (p less than 0.01) than in group F. Trainees of group F had a higher consumption of spirits (p less than 0.05) than trainees of group S. There was no difference between the two groups in weight, percentage body fat, physical capacity, total serum cholesterol, and GGT values. HDL-cholesterol was higher in group S compared to group F (p less than 0.01). Stepwise discriminant analysis applied to anthropometric, biochemical, and cycloergometric data indicated HDL-cholesterol, height, resting heart rate, heart frequency at maximal exercise, and serum cholesterol as significant discriminating variables (p less than 0.001), giving only a 63% chance of correctly classifying the candidates.