Monte Carlo simulation of bifurcation in the intracellular viral kinetics

Intracellular viral kinetics are of special interest because the virion population inside an infected cell is well known to tend to grow exponentially and the corresponding kinetics may be unstable. To clarify the special features of such kinetics, we present Monte Carlo simulations taking into account the key steps of virion formation and competition of the host and viral mRNA for the host translation apparatus. Asymptotically, the model employed predicts either a stable steady state or 'ignition' with the unlimited viral growth. Under steady-state conditions, the mean square fluctuations of the viral genome and virion numbers are found to be appreciably larger than those expected on the basis of the Poissonian distribution. In the case of unstable kinetics, the simulations show the type of deviations from the corresponding mean-field results.