Durability of marker-quantitative trait loci haplotypes in structured populations

Given the relative ease of identifying genetic markers linked to QTL (compared to finding the loci themselves), it is natural to ask whether linked markers can be used to address questions concerning the contemporary dynamics and recent history of the QTL. In particular, can a marker allele found associated with a QTL allele in a QTL mapping study be used to track population dynamics or the history of the QTL allele? For this strategy to succeed, the marker-QTL haplotype must persist in the face of recombination over the relevant time frame. Here we investigate the dynamics of marker-QTL haplotype frequencies under recombination, population structure, and divergent selection to assess the potential utility of linked markers for a population genetic study of QTL. For two scenarios, described as "secondary contact" and "novel allele," we use both deterministic and stochastic methods to describe the influence of gene flow between habitats, the strength of divergent selection, and the genetic distance between a marker and the QTL on the persistence of marker-QTL haplotypes. We find that for most reasonable values of selection on a locus (s < or = 0.5) and migration (m > 1%) between differentially selected populations, haplotypes of typically spaced markers (5 cM) and QTL do not persist long enough (>100 generations) to provide accurate inference of the allelic state at the QTL.