Model comparison for risk assessment: a case study of contaminated groundwater

Many environmental multimedia risk assessment models have been developed and widely used along with increasing sophistication of the risk assessment method. Despite of the considerable improvement, uncertainty remains a primary threat to the credibility of and users' confidence in the model-based risk assessments. In particular, it has been indicated that scenario and model uncertainty may affect significantly the assessment outcome. Furthermore, the uncertainty resulting from choosing different models has been shown more important than that caused by parameter uncertainty. Based on the relationship between exposure pathways and estimated risk results, this study develops a screening procedure to compare the relative suitability between potential multimedia models, which would facilitate the reduction of uncertainty due to model selection. MEPAS, MMSOILS, and CalTOX models, combined with Monte Carlo simulation, are applied to a realistic groundwater-contaminated site to demonstrate the process. It is also shown that the identification of important parameters and exposure pathways, and implicitly, the subsequent design of uncertainty reduction and risk management measures, would be better-formed.