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Related Experiment Videos

Predicting time to subsequent pregnancy.

Rachel Gold1, Frederick A Connell, Patrick Heagerty

  • 1Department of Epidemiology, Washington State Department of Social and Health Services, Division of Research and Data Analysis, University of Washington (UW) School of Public & Community Medicine, Portland, Oregon, 97239, USA. rachel.gold@kpchr.org

Maternal and Child Health Journal
|October 19, 2005
PubMed
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Predicting pregnancy spacing for women in poverty is challenging. Individual and community factors show associations but lack strong predictive power for identifying women at risk of closely spaced pregnancies.

Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Reproductive Health
  • Socioeconomic Determinants of Health

Background:

  • Closely spaced pregnancies can pose risks, particularly for women in poverty.
  • Identifying women at risk for short interpregnancy intervals is crucial for targeted interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To identify individual- and community-level factors that predict closely spaced pregnancies among women receiving public assistance.
  • To assess the predictive ability of these factors for pregnancy spacing.

Main Methods:

  • A cohort of 20,028 women receiving welfare in Washington State was studied.
  • Cox proportional hazards models were used to analyze time to subsequent pregnancy.
  • Prediction models were developed and validated, with performance assessed using receiver operator characteristic curves.

Related Experiment Videos

Main Results:

  • The most predictive model, using only individual factors (age, education, race, marital status, prior pregnancies), had an area under the curve of 0.66.
  • Adding community-level variables (poverty, education, race, urbanicity, unemployment, inequality) minimally improved predictive ability.
  • While differences exist, selected factors were not strong predictors of pregnancy spacing.

Conclusions:

  • Individual and community characteristics are associated with interpregnancy intervals.
  • However, the studied variables did not demonstrate useful predictive power for pregnancy spacing in this population.