A proposed prognostic formula for Perthes' disease.

Area of Science:

• Orthopedic surgery
• Pediatric orthopedics
• Radiology

Background:

• Perthes' disease is a hip condition affecting children.
• Predicting long-term outcomes is crucial for treatment planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To identify early radiographic predictors of long-term prognosis in unilateral Perthes' disease.
• To develop a predictive model for patient outcomes.

Main Methods:

• Retrospective review of 145 patients with unilateral Perthes' disease.
• Quantitative analysis of early radiographic signs and age at onset.
• Multiple regression analysis to correlate predictors with long-term outcomes (modified Stulberg's classification).

Main Results:

• A predictive formula combining age at onset, epiphyseal involvement, and subluxation scores was most reliable.
• A score of 1.5 or less predicted a good prognosis; 2.6 or more indicated a poor prognosis.
• Early radiographic stage at initial visit did not influence final results.

Conclusions:

• Multifactorial assessment of early radiographic factors and age at onset accurately predicts long-term prognosis in Perthes' disease.
• This predictive model can aid in clinical decision-making and patient counseling.