[Model for predicting survival of patients with severe virus hepatitis and its clinical application]

To study prospectively the short-time survival of patients with severe virus hepatitis using model of severe liver diseases (MSLD) established by our previous study.

One hundred and three patients with severe hepatitis were included by cohort study. Of them, there were 85 patients with severe chronic hepatitis patients, 10 acute and 8 subacute severe hepatitis patients, respectively. The follow-up endpoint was 6 months. The cutoff score of the MSLD was determined by receiver operating characteristic cure (ROC) statistic analysis, and the survival of severe hepatitis patients in 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 3 months and 6 months were estimated by Kaplan-Meier statistic analysis.

The cutoff MSLD score for predicting survival was 5. The survival curves of group A (total MSLD score< or =4) was significantly better than group B (total MSLD score> or =5, P<0.000). After treatment for 2 weeks, the survival rate in 2 weeks and 4 weeks was 37.9% and 3.5%, respectively, if MSLD score had no change or increased. The survival rate in 2 weeks, 4 weeks and 3 months was respectively 61.5%, 15.4%, 5.8% if the MSLD score decreased 1. Then, the survival in 2 weeks, 4 weeks, 3 months and 6 months was respectively 95.0%, 90.0%, 63.9% and 52.4% if MSLD score decreased 2 or more.

It is suggested that MSLD may be valuable in predicting 6-month survival of severe virus hepatitis patients. It may be used to determine the efficacy of medical treatment and to guide clinical decision.