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Are there limits to running world records?

Alan M Nevill¹, Gregory Whyte

¹Research Institute of Healthcare Sciences, University of Wolverhampton, Walsall, West Midlands, United Kingdom. a.m.nevill@wlv.ac.uk

Medicine and Science in Sports and Exercise

|November 2, 2005

Summary

Human running performance may be reaching its limit. A logistic model shows that world records are nearing an asymptote, suggesting women

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Area of Science:

Sports Science
Biomechanics
Human Performance

Background:

Previous linear models predicted limitless human performance.
Linear models suggested women would surpass men in running records.

Purpose of the Study:

To assess if a flattened S-shaped curve better fits running world record data.
To determine if human running performance has asymptotic limits.

Main Methods:

Modeled 20th-century middle- and long-distance running world record speeds.
Utilized a flattened S-shaped logistic curve for analysis.

Main Results:

Logistic curves provided a significantly better fit than linear models.
Identified periods of record speed increase and subsequent slowing.
Predicted men's records are nearing asymptotic limits (1-3%).
Indicated the women's 1500m record may have reached its limit.

Conclusions:

Many established men's and women's endurance running records are approaching their limits.
Women's world records are unlikely to surpass those of men.

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