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Related Experiment Videos

A test of prospect theory.

David Feeny1, Ken Eng

  • 1University of Alberta and Institute of Health Economics, 10405 Jasper Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T5J 3N4, Canada. david.feeny@ualberta.ca

International Journal of Technology Assessment in Health Care
|November 3, 2005
PubMed
Summary

Prospect theory predictions were not supported in osteoarthritis patients undergoing hip arthroplasty. Utility scores for hypothetical health states did not change as prospect theory (PT) predicted post-surgery.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision science
  • Health economics
  • Behavioral economics

Background:

  • Prospect theory (PT) posits that individuals evaluate outcomes relative to a reference point, typically current health status.
  • Utility is judged differently for gains (concave function) versus losses (convex function) relative to this reference point.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To empirically test the implications of prospect theory (PT) using prospectively collected utility scores.
  • To assess if patient utility scores for hypothetical health states align with PT predictions after total hip arthroplasty.

Main Methods:

  • Osteoarthritis patients undergoing total hip arthroplasty provided utility scores (standard gamble) for hypothetical mild, moderate, and severe OA states and their current health state (SDCS).
  • Utility scores were collected pre- and post-surgery to evaluate changes relative to the subjectively defined current state (SDCS).
  • Hypothesis: Scores for states initially better than SDCS but worse post-surgery would decrease according to PT.

Main Results:

  • Of 14 patients meeting criteria, 0 (0%) confirmed PT predictions.
  • 6 patients (42.9%) showed no change or mixed results.
  • 8 patients (57.1%) exhibited changes in utility scores opposite to PT predictions.

Conclusions:

  • The observed changes in utility scores for hypothetical health states did not align with the predictions of prospect theory (PT).
  • Findings suggest that PT may not accurately predict how patients value health state changes in this context.