[A physician demand and supply forecast model for Nova Scotia]

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Health Workforce Planning
• Medical Economics

Background:

• Growing concern over Health Human Resources (HHR) availability due to demographic shifts.
• An aging population increases demand for medical services while the HHR workforce also ages.
• Lengthy physician training necessitates advanced workforce planning.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop a physician forecasting model for Nova Scotia.
• Project Full-Time Equivalent (FTE) physician demand and supply to 2020 for general practitioners, medical specialists, and surgical specialists.
• Enable gap analysis and policy assessment for physician workforce planning.

Main Methods:

• Demand Estimation: Calculated physician FTE using income data (Physician Billings Data) and a Health Canada formula, distributed FTE by service, and projected future demand using Statistics Canada population projections.
• Supply Modeling: Employed a stock/flow approach using time-series data on emigration, international medical graduates (IMGs), entrants, retirements, and mortality.
• Policy Simulation: Incorporated parameters to assess various policy options impacting supply and demand.

Main Results:

• Under current trends, projected physician demand will surpass supply across all three specialties by 2020.
• The model highlights a significant gap between anticipated physician needs and the available workforce.

Conclusions:

• The physician forecasting model is a user-friendly tool for policymakers.
• It can simulate the impact of policy interventions (e.g., increasing international medical graduates, adjusting retirement ages) on the physician workforce.
• The model identifies necessary policy levers to close projected demand-supply gaps.