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A stochastic model simulating pathogen-specific mastitis control in a dairy herd
S Østergaard1, M G G Chagunda, N C Friggens
1Department of Animal Health, Welfare and Nutrition, Research Centre Foulum, Danish Institute of Agricultural Sciences, P.O. Box 50, DK-8830 Tjele, Denmark. soren.ostergaard@agrsci.dk
Journal of Dairy Science
|November 18, 2005
Summary
This study developed a dairy herd mastitis control model. It highlights the importance of including subclinical mastitis and severity variations for accurate economic impact assessment in dairy farming.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Epidemiology
- Dairy Science
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Mastitis is a significant disease in dairy herds, impacting animal health and farm economics.
- Existing models may not fully capture the nuances of mastitis, including subclinical forms and varying severity.
Purpose of the Study:
- To develop a comprehensive model for simulating mastitis control in dairy herds.
- To assess the sensitivity of the model to variations in effect parameters and uncertainty.
- To evaluate the economic consequences of mastitis and control strategies.
Main Methods:
- Development of a simulation model incorporating 9 pathogen-specific mastitis types (subclinical and clinical with 4 severity levels).
- Inclusion of risk factors such as lactation stage, parity, yield, previous diseases, season, and contagious spread.
- Simulation of 35 scenarios to analyze model behavior and sensitivity.
Main Results:
- The model accounts for mastitis effects on feed intake, body weight, milk yield, somatic cell count, culling, mortality, and milk withdrawal.
- A default herd simulation showed 0.42 clinical and 0.56 subclinical mastitis cases per cow/year, with significant milk loss and economic reduction.
- Sensitivity analysis confirmed the model's validity in predicting mastitis control strategy outcomes.
Conclusions:
- Accurate modeling of mastitis economics requires representing subclinical infections and variations in clinical mastitis severity.
- The developed model provides a valuable tool for studying long-term, herd-specific effects of diverse mastitis control strategies.