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Forecasting Spanish natural life expectancy.

Montserrat Guillen1, Antoni Vidiella-i-Anguera

  • 1Departament d'Econometria, Estadistica i Economia Espanyola, Universitat de Barcelona, Diagonal, 690 08034 Barcelona, Spain. mguillen@ub.edu

Risk Analysis : an Official Publication of the Society for Risk Analysis
|November 22, 2005
PubMed
Summary

This study explores decomposing mortality rates to improve life expectancy forecasts. Analyzing Spanish data reveals potential for more accurate long-term planning for insurance and retirement schemes.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Actuarial Science
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Life expectancy trends are crucial for policy planning, insurance, and retirement schemes.
  • Accurate mortality rate forecasting is essential for financial and social sustainability.
  • Understanding age-gender-specific mortality differentials is key to refining projections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the feasibility of decomposing age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality rates.
  • To apply the Lee and Carter model for analyzing Spanish mortality data.
  • To compare life expectancy forecasts derived from decomposed versus non-decomposed mortality rates.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized the Poisson log-bilinear version of the Lee and Carter model.
  • Fitted the model to historical Spanish mortality data (1975-1998).

Related Experiment Videos

  • Employed the Wilmoth and Valkonen model to analyze mortality-gender differentials.

    • Main Results:

    • Demonstrated the feasibility of decomposing mortality rates.
    • Provided insights into age-gender-specific accidental and natural mortality patterns.
    • Presented life expectancy forecasts showing differences compared to traditional methods.

    Conclusions:

    • Decomposing mortality rates offers a more nuanced approach to forecasting.
    • This method enhances the accuracy of life expectancy projections for policy and financial planning.
    • Further research can refine these models for broader demographic analysis.