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Using the W&H integrated uncertainty analysis framework with non-initiated experts.

M P Krayer von Krauss1, P H M Janssen

  • 1Department of Environment and Resources, Technical University of Denmark. mkk@er.dtu.dk

Water Science and Technology : a Journal of the International Association on Water Pollution Research
|November 25, 2005
PubMed
Summary

The Walker and Harremoës (W&H) framework aids in systematically analyzing uncertainty for better decision-making in policy and risk assessment. This study explores its application in expert elicitation for genetically modified crop risk, offering insights for improved communication.

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Area of Science:

  • Decision Support Systems
  • Risk Assessment
  • Environmental Policy

Background:

  • The Walker and Harremoës (W&H) integrated uncertainty analysis framework was developed for systematic uncertainty treatment in model-based decision support.
  • Existing decision support practices often lack a structured approach to classifying and reporting diverse dimensions of uncertainty.
  • Effective communication of uncertainty is crucial among analysts, policymakers, and stakeholders.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To introduce and apply the W&H framework for expert elicitation on uncertainty in genetically modified crop risk assessment.
  • To evaluate the framework's effectiveness in communicating complex uncertainty concepts to decision-support experts.
  • To identify challenges and provide recommendations for improving the application of the W&H framework.

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Main Methods:

  • Introduction of the W&H conceptual framework for classifying and reporting uncertainty.
  • Application of the W&H framework in expert elicitation exercises focused on genetically modified crop risk.
  • Discussion of experiences and challenges encountered during the application of the W&H methodology.

Main Results:

  • The W&H framework provides a heuristic tool for articulating diverse understandings of uncertainty, ignorance, and quality in science for policy.
  • Application revealed that W&H concepts can be unfamiliar or controversial to experts practicing decision support.
  • Methodology for expert elicitation using the W&H framework was successfully applied, generating valuable insights into uncertainty dimensions.

Conclusions:

  • The W&H framework offers a valuable conceptual basis for systematic uncertainty analysis in decision support.
  • Effective communication strategies are needed to introduce novel W&H concepts to experts without causing intimidation or confusion.
  • Further refinement of the W&H framework's application in expert elicitation is recommended for enhanced decision support.