A deterministic model to quantify pathogen loads in drinking water catchments: pathogen budget for the Wingecarribee.

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Water Quality Management
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• Sydney's drinking water catchments face risks from pathogens like Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and E. coli.
• Effective management requires accurate quantification and prioritization of pathogen sources.

Purpose of the Study:

• To develop and test a mathematical model for quantifying pathogen loads in Sydney's drinking water catchments.
• To identify, quantify, and prioritize sources of Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and E. coli in the Wingecarribee catchment.

Main Methods:

• Development of a mathematical model to assess pathogen loads.
• Application of the model to the Wingecarribee catchment for source identification and risk prioritization.
• Analysis of pathogen fate and transport within subcatchments.

Main Results:

• The model successfully identified and quantified major sources of Cryptosporidium, Giardia, and E. coli.
• Understanding of the relative significance of different pathogen sources and their movement through the catchment was enhanced.
• Identification of specific catchment segments contributing highest pathogen loads.

Conclusions:

• The developed pathogen model is an effective tool for water quality management in drinking water catchments.
• The model aids water utility managers in prioritizing management interventions for maximum effectiveness.
• Improved understanding of pathogen dynamics supports risk mitigation strategies.