A recent increase in AIDS at Lyon University Hospitals: patient characteristics and comparisons with previous years

A 36% increase in the incidence of AIDS was observed in 2002/2003 compared with 2000/2001 at Lyon University Hospitals.

We compared the characteristics of these patients with the characteristics of those diagnosed previously with AIDS.

Data for all patients with AIDS diagnosed at Lyon University Hospitals were analyzed. The data were collected prospectively. Multiple logistic regression was used for analysis.

The variables independently associated with an AIDS diagnosis in 2002/2003 compared with the 1985-1989 period were: homosexual exposure [odds ratio (OR) 0.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.2-0.8]; heterosexual exposure in an endemic area (OR 22.5; 95% CI 6.8-74.8), compared with other exposure to HIV; lymphoma as initial AIDS event (OR 10.3; 95% CI 2.7-39.1) compared with Pneumocystis carinii pneumonia; and age at first AIDS event aged 34-38 years (OR 2.5; 95% CI 1.0-6.4), aged 39-46 years (OR 5.1; 95% CI 2.2-11.8), and aged 47-84 years (OR 10.6; 95% CI 4.5-25.1) compared with aged <30 years. The variables independently associated with an AIDS diagnosis in 2002/2003 compared with the 1997/2001 period were age at first AIDS event aged 34-38 years (OR 0.4; 95% CI 0.2-0.9) compared with aged <30 years.

Recently diagnosed AIDS patients differed from those diagnosed previously, showing an epidemic switch in different populations. The characteristics of the AIDS population in 2002/2003 might reflect public health messages disseminated around 10 years ago or more for the prevention of HIV transmission. Anticipation of populations affected by the AIDS epidemic is difficult.