[The prognostic value of end-stage liver disease model in liver cirrhosis]

The prognostic ability of the model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) has been validated in many countries, but its abilities remain uncertain in China. Our aim is to evaluate the abilities of MELD in prognosis of liver cirrhosis.

A cohort of 315 patients with liver cirrhosis were retrospectively studied and followed up at least for one year. MELD score was obtained for each patient according to the modified formula by Kamath P.S.. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was used to compare MELD and Child-Turcotte-Pugh (CTP) score and classification in predicting accuracy. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used to compare the mortality in subgroups ranked by the MELD score.

The AUC values generated by the ROC curves for the MELD were 0.95, 0.85 and 0.83 respectively in predicting 3, 6 month and 1 year survival, and were all more than 0.80 in predicting longer time survival, whereas the AUC was 0.82, 0.78, 0.74 for CTP score and 0.70, 0.66, 0.61 for CTP classification respectively in predicting 3, 6 month and 1 year survival. The differences of AUCs between the MELD and CTP classification were significant in predicting 6 month and 1, 3 and 4 year survival, but were not significant in predicting other time point survival. The differences of AUCs between the MELD and CTP score were not significant in predicting survival. In the subgroups of patients ranked by MELD score lower than 10, 10 to 20, 20 to 30, and more than 30, the survival rate was significant different (P = 0.000).

MELD is a useful prognosis indicator for the liver cirrhosis. The ability of prognosis by MELD is similar to Child-Turcotte-Pugh classification and score.