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Related Experiment Videos

A time-dependent discrimination index for survival data.

Laura Antolini1, Patrizia Boracchi, Elia Biganzoli

  • 1Unità di Statistica Medica e Biometria, Istituto Nazionale per lo Studio e la Cura dei Tumori di Milano, Via Venezian 1, 20133 Milano, Italy. laura.antolini@istitutotumori.mi.it

Statistics in Medicine
|December 2, 2005
PubMed
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A new time-dependent discrimination index (Ctd) accurately measures predictive accuracy for survival models with time-dependent factors. This method enhances outcome prediction by assessing discrimination over time, crucial for complex clinical data.

Area of Science:

  • Biostatistics
  • Survival Analysis
  • Clinical Epidemiology

Background:

  • Accurate predictive accuracy measures are vital for outcome prediction models.
  • Harrell's C index, an extension of ROC AUC, is interpretable for censored survival data.
  • Standard C index is limited for models with time-dependent effects or covariates, requiring individual failure time predictions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To propose a novel time-dependent discrimination index (Ctd) for survival models.
  • To utilize the entire predicted survival function for outcome prediction.
  • To summarize the ability to discriminate among subjects with different outcomes over time.

Main Methods:

  • Introduced a new concordance definition: subjects with events should have lower predicted survival probabilities than those surviving longer.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Compared predicted survival functions of subjects experiencing events with those of subjects experiencing events or censoring later.
  • Developed a confidence interval for Ctd using the jackknife method on U-statistics.

    • Main Results:

    • The Ctd index effectively evaluates discrimination in models with time-dependent effects.
    • Applied Ctd to predict time to relapse in breast cancer patients treated with adjuvant tamoxifen.
    • Validated model discrimination using an independent dataset.

    Conclusions:

    • The proposed Ctd index offers a robust method for assessing predictive accuracy in complex survival models.
    • Ctd is suitable for clinical applications involving time-dependent covariates and effects.
    • This index enhances the interpretability and utility of survival models for outcome prediction.