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Serial changes in blood pressure from adolescence into adulthood
L A Beckett1, B Rosner, A F Roche
1Channing Laboratory, Department of Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, Harvard Medical School, Boston, MA.
American Journal of Epidemiology
|May 15, 1992
Summary
Childhood blood pressure readings predict adult hypertension risk. High-normal blood pressure in adolescence moderately increases the likelihood of developing high blood pressure later in life.
Area of Science:
- Cardiovascular Health
- Pediatric Health
- Longitudinal Studies
Background:
- High blood pressure is a significant risk factor for adult cardiovascular disease.
- Longitudinal studies show blood pressure tracks over the short term in childhood.
Purpose of the Study:
- To determine the predictive value of childhood blood pressure for adult blood pressure levels.
- To assess the long-term tracking of blood pressure from adolescence to adulthood.
Main Methods:
- Utilized data from the Fels Longitudinal Study (501 participants).
- Employed a damped autoregressive model for analyzing repeated blood pressure measurements.
- Examined tracking correlations for systolic and diastolic pressure over extended periods.
Main Results:
- Tracking correlations for systolic pressure ranged from 0.39 (4-year intervals) to 0.24 (20 years).
- Tracking correlations for diastolic pressure ranged from 0.37 (4 years) to 0.20 (20 years).
- Blood pressure tracking persists from age 13 to 40 years.
Conclusions:
- Childhood blood pressure tracking indicates moderate relative risk for adult hypertension.
- Adolescents with high-normal diastolic pressure (e.g., 80 mmHg) face elevated hypertension risk in adulthood.
- Estimated relative risks for hypertension at age 35 were 1.9 for males and 2.6 for females with higher adolescent diastolic pressure.