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A Murine Model of Dengue Virus-induced Acute Viral Encephalitis-like Disease
Published on: April 28, 2019
Outlook of dengue in Malaysia: a century later
Sazaly Abubakar1, Norazizah Shafee
1Department of Medical Microbiology, Faculty of Medicine, University of Malaya, 50603 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. sazaly@um.edu.my
Abstract:
Dengue continues to be a major health threat to Malaysia a century after its first reported outbreak in 1902. Examination of the available outbreak data suggested that a major DF/DHF outbreak occurred in Malaysia in a cyclical pattern of approximately every 8 years. All four dengue virus serotypes are found co-circulating in Malaysia, but after the first and only major outbreak involving DEN-4 in 1960's, only DEN-1, DEN-2 and DEN-3 were associated with DF/DHF outbreaks. It is argued that perhaps the spread of the later dengue virus serotypes followed the pattern of spread of the mosquito vector Aedes aegypti, whereas the former was associated with Aedes albopictus, the outdoor and rural area dwelling mosquito. Estimating from the trend and pattern of dengue and the associated dengue virus serotypes, unless there is a major breakthrough in dengue vaccine development, it is likely that dengue outbreaks will continue to occur in Malaysia throughout the 21st century.
Insights
Malaysia faces recurring dengue outbreaks every 8 years, driven by co-circulating dengue virus serotypes. Without a vaccine breakthrough, these significant public health threats are expected to persist throughout the 21st century.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Medical Entomology
- Virology
Background:
- Dengue remains a significant public health challenge in Malaysia, with a history of outbreaks dating back over a century.
- Cyclical major dengue outbreaks have been observed approximately every eight years.
- All four dengue virus serotypes (DEN-1, DEN-2, DEN-3, DEN-4) have been present in Malaysia.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the historical patterns of dengue outbreaks in Malaysia.
- To investigate the association between dengue virus serotypes and outbreak cycles.
- To project future dengue outbreak trends in Malaysia.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of historical dengue outbreak data in Malaysia.
- Examination of dengue virus serotype distribution and circulation patterns.
- Trend analysis to estimate future outbreak likelihood.
Main Results:
- Major dengue outbreaks in Malaysia exhibit an approximate 8-year cyclical pattern.
- Following a 1960s outbreak, DEN-4 has not been associated with subsequent outbreaks; DEN-1, DEN-2, and DEN-3 are the primary drivers.
- Differences in mosquito vector ecology (Aedes aegypti vs. Aedes albopictus) may influence serotype spread and outbreak patterns.
Conclusions:
- Dengue outbreaks are likely to continue in Malaysia in the 21st century.
- The absence of DEN-4 in recent outbreaks and the roles of different mosquito vectors are key factors.
- Development of a dengue vaccine is crucial to mitigate future outbreaks.
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