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Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Max Tegmark1, Nick Bostrom

  • 1Department of Physics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts 02139, USA. tegmark@mit.edu

Nature
|December 13, 2005
PubMed
Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

The risk of Earth-destroying physics experiments is minuscule, but past survival doesn't prove low probability. New calculations provide an unbiased, upper bound for cosmic catastrophe rates, crucial for existential risk assessment.

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Area of Science:

  • High-energy physics
  • Astrophysics
  • Existential risk assessment

Background:

  • Previous risk assessments for Earth-destroying scenarios from high-energy physics experiments were considered minuscule.
  • However, observer selection bias may create a false sense of security, as survival does not inherently imply low probability.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To derive an unbiased upper bound for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate.
  • To reassess the potential risks associated with high-energy physics experiments and other cosmic threats.

Main Methods:

  • Calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.
  • Statistical analysis to correct for observer selection bias.

Main Results:

  • A new upper bound for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate was derived.
  • The rate is estimated at one per billion years with a 99.9% confidence level.
  • This estimate is free from observer selection bias.

Conclusions:

  • The study provides a more reliable upper bound for cosmic catastrophe rates.
  • This refined understanding is vital for accurately assessing existential risks, including those from scientific endeavors.