[Early prediction of functional outcome one year after initial unilateral hemispheric stroke]

Several prognostic factors have been identified for outcome after stroke. We conducted a study to determine early predictive factors of functional outcome one year after stroke and to evaluate which factors are independent predictors, with an aim of specifying the role of age, aphasia, unilateral neglect, cognitive impairment and family social support.

Observational cohort study of 156 patients. All patients admitted to the university hospital for initial unilateral hemispheric stroke were included. The study duration was two years (inclusion, one year, and follow-up, one year) . The initial evaluation of stroke was conducted at day 2 and day 15 and included the Motricity Index and Trunk Control Test, New Functional Ambulation Classification, Frenchay arm test, Mini-Mental State Examination, Boston Diagnostic Aphasia Examination, unilateral neglect evaluation, and depression. Data on functional recovery (Barthel Index) were collected at day 360.

The average age of patients was 72 years. Age was correlated to social situation (P<0.01) and previous neurological impairment (P<0.01). A multiple regression analysis, including 14 initial clinical factors correlated with the Barthel Index score at day 360, revealed 4 independent early predictive factors of outcome: initial score of Barthel Index at day 2 and its progression from day 2 to day 15, disorders of the executive functions and previous neurological impairment.

In our cohort, in accordance with previous studies, age, cognitive impairment, unilateral neglect, aphasia, depression and social situation are not independent factors of poor outcome after stroke as evaluated by the Barthel Index.