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Related Experiment Videos

Preparing for the next influenza pandemic: lessons from multinational data.

Thomas A Reichert1

  • 1Entropy Research Institute, Boston, MA, USA. treichert@entropylimited.com

The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal
|December 27, 2005
PubMed
Summary

Global influenza pandemics pose a growing threat, with current control strategies proving suboptimal. Enhanced pandemic preparedness and vaccine strategies are crucial to mitigate future risks and avoid ineffectiveness.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Public Health
  • Virology

Background:

  • Avian influenza incursions into humans are increasing in scope and virulence, raising pandemic likelihood.
  • Influenza is a principal cause of increased winter mortality in developed nations.
  • Despite increased vaccination coverage, excess mortality in elderly groups has not declined.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To analyze global mortality data to assess influenza's impact and evaluate current control strategies.
  • To identify patterns and warning signs preceding influenza pandemics.

Main Methods:

  • Assembled and mined mortality data from multiple countries through the Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study.
  • Analyzed historical pandemic data, including the 1968-1969 A(H3N2) pandemic.

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Main Results:

  • Global mortality data confirm U.S. findings, indicating widespread impact of influenza.
  • Heralding events preceding 20th-century pandemics were identified.
  • The 1968-1969 pandemic showed limited initial excess mortality outside North America, with a more virulent strain emerging later.

Conclusions:

  • Current influenza control strategies in approximately 50 countries are suboptimal.
  • While pandemic response time may be longer than anticipated, strategy enhancement is necessary.
  • Anticipated vaccine shortages necessitate a departure from historical strategies to prevent ineffectiveness.