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Memory in the occurrence of earthquakes
Valerie N Livina1, Shlomo Havlin, Armin Bunde
1Minerva Center and Department of Physics, Bar-Ilan University, Ramat-Gan 52900, Israel.
Physical Review Letters
|December 31, 2005
Summary
Earthquake recurrence times cluster, with past intervals influencing future earthquake likelihood. This temporal dependence is crucial for accurate earthquake forecasting.
Area of Science:
- Geophysics
- Seismology
- Statistical analysis of natural phenomena
Background:
- Understanding earthquake occurrence patterns is vital for hazard assessment.
- Previous studies have explored earthquake statistics, but temporal dependencies require further investigation.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze the statistical distribution of earthquake recurrence times.
- To investigate the influence of previous recurrence intervals on future earthquake probabilities.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of earthquake catalogs (one global, five regional).
- Statistical examination of recurrence times (tau) and prior recurrence times (tau0).
- Calculation of conditional mean recurrence time and conditional mean residual time.
Main Results:
- Earthquake recurrence time distributions are strongly dependent on the preceding interval (tau0).
- Both small and large recurrence times exhibit temporal clustering.
- Conditional mean recurrence and residual times increase monotonically with tau0.
Conclusions:
- Earthquake occurrence is not a purely random process; past intervals significantly impact future events.
- Effective earthquake prognosis must incorporate the observed temporal dependencies.
- The findings have implications for seismic hazard assessment and risk management.
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