Risk factors affecting survival in heart transplant patients

Certain cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to morbidity and mortality in heart transplant (HT) patients. The sum of various risk factors may have a large cumulative negative effect, leading to a substantially worse prognosis and the need to consider whether HT is contraindicated. The objective of this study was to determine whether the risk factors usually available prior to HT result in an excess mortality in our setting that contraindicates transplantation.

Consecutive patients who underwent heart transplantation from November 1987 to January 2004 were included. Heart-lung transplants, retransplants, and pediatric transplants were excluded. Of the 384 patients, 89% were men. Mean age was 52 years (range, 12 to 67). Underlying disease included ischemic heart disease (52%), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (36%), valvular disease (8%), and other (4%). Variables considered risk factors were obesity (BMI >25), dyslipidemia, hypertension, prior thoracic surgery, diabetes, and history of ischemic heart disease. Survival curves by number of risk factors using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank for comparison of curves.

Overall patient survival at 1, 5, 10, and 13 years was 76%, 68%, 54%, and 47%, respectively. Survival at 10 years, if fewer than two risk factors were present, was 69%; 59% if two or three factors were present; and 37% if more than three associated risk factors were present (P = .04).

The presence of certain risk factors in patients undergoing HT resulted in lower survival rates. The combination of various risk factors clearly worsened outcomes. However, we do not believe this should be an absolute contraindication for transplantation.