The New England Air Quality Forecasting Pilot Program: development of an evaluation protocol and performance...

Area of Science:

• Environmental Science
• Atmospheric Chemistry
• Air Quality Modeling

Background:

• The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) initiated the New England Forecasting Pilot Program.
• This program served as a test bed for chemical weather forecasting.
• It aimed to provide all components of a National Air Quality Forecasting System, including evaluation protocols.

Purpose of the Study:

• To evaluate the performance of regional air quality models in forecasting ozone (O3) concentrations.
• To test an evaluation protocol for assessing air quality forecasts.
• To support the development of a National Air Quality Forecasting System.

Main Methods:

• Three regional-scale air quality models were used as prototypes.
• An evaluation protocol with statistical metrics was developed and implemented.
• Hourly O3 concentration data from over 450 EPA Air Quality System monitors were utilized for evaluation.

Main Results:

• The study evaluated both discrete (concentration) and categorical (exceedance) forecasts.
• Forecasts for maximum 1-hr (125 ppb) and 8-hr (85 ppb) O3 were assessed.
• The evaluation period spanned 25 days (August 5-29, 2002).

Conclusions:

• The pilot program successfully provided a test bed for air quality forecasting methods.
• The implemented evaluation protocol facilitated the assessment of model performance.
• Findings contribute to the refinement of national air quality forecasting capabilities.