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Population estimates; backseries methodology for 1992-2000.

Michelle Littlefield1, Ruth Fulton

  • 1Population and Demography Division, Office for National Statistics.

Population Trends
|January 18, 2006
PubMed
Summary

Population estimates are revised using census data to prevent discontinuities. This article details the comprehensive methodology used by ONS to revise the 1992-2000 population backseries following the 2001 Census.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Statistical Methodology

Background:

  • Population estimates require regular rebasing with new census data.
  • Rebasing can cause artificial step changes in historical population series.
  • Previous methods for revising backseries included simple period and cohort methods.

Observation:

  • The 2001 Census necessitated a revision of the population backseries from 1992 to 2000.
  • A comprehensive research period was undertaken to determine the optimal revision methodology.
  • Traditional methods were deemed insufficient for the post-2001 Census revision.

Findings:

  • A detailed methodology was developed and selected for revising the 1992-2000 population backseries.
  • The revised backseries ensures continuity and accuracy in population estimates.

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  • The selected method represents a significant advancement over previous approaches.

    • Implications:

    • Ensures reliable historical population data for policy and research.
    • Provides a robust framework for future population estimate revisions.
    • Enhances the accuracy and comparability of demographic statistics.