The high cost of infrequent events

A heuristic is a general problem-solving framework (Tversky & Kahneman, 1974). You can think of these as mental shortcuts that are used to solve problems. Different types of heuristics are used in different types of situations, and the impulse to use a heuristic occurs when one of five conditions is met (Pratkanis, 1989):

Unusual results are those that have a very low chance of occurring. Unusual results can be identified using probabilities and the range rule of thumb. In problems involving probability, unusual results can be observed in 2 instances – an unusually high number of successes or an unusually low number of successes.
According to the range rule of thumb, any value above or below two standard deviations, 2σ  from the mean, μ  is considered unusual.
Maximum unusual value = μ + 2σ
Minimum unusual value...

A cumulative frequency distribution is another type of frequency distribution. Instead of reporting how many data values fall in some classes, it reports how many data values are contained in either that class or any class to its left. Technically, it means the sum of frequencies of the class and all the classes below it in a frequency distribution. A cumulative frequency is calculated by adding the frequency of each class lower than the corresponding class interval or category. In general, a...

Organisms must balance energy intake with the energy required for growth, maintenance, and reproduction. These trade-offs result in a variety of survivorship and reproductive strategies, including semelparity and iteroparity. Semelparous species reproduce only once in their lifetime, often investing most available resources into that single reproductive event. Iteroparous species, by contrast, reproduce multiple times over their lifetimes, typically allocating fewer resources to any single...

The relative frequency depicts the proportion of data points that have each value. The frequency tells the number of data points that have each value. Like the histogram, a relative frequency histogram also has the same shape with a horizontal scale (the x-axis), but the vertical scale (the y-axis) is marked with relative frequencies (percentages of the whole) instead of actual frequencies. A relative frequency histogram is a graphical representation of a frequency distribution where the...

Random or indeterminate errors originate from various uncontrollable variables, such as variations in environmental conditions, instrument imperfections, or the inherent variability of the phenomena being measured. Usually, these errors cannot be predicted, estimated, or characterized because their direction and magnitude often vary in magnitude and direction even during consecutive measurements. As a result, they are difficult to eliminate. However, the aggregate effect of these errors can be...