Economic deregulation and transport safety: a synthesis of evidence from evaluation studies

This paper presents a synthesis of evidence from studies that have evaluated the impacts of economic deregulation on transport safety. Most of these studies refer to aviation or road transport. Very few studies deal with deregulation of rail transport. There are no studies of maritime transport, which has never been regulated the same way as other modes of transport. The review includes studies that have attempted to quantify the impacts of transport deregulation on transport safety. Each study contains one or more estimates of the effect on transport safety of deregulation. Summary estimates of effect have been derived from the individual estimates of effect by means of meta-analysis. Airline deregulation, which has only been evaluated in the United States, does not appear to influence the safety of air travel. Deregulation of road transport has been evaluated in several countries. The summary estimate of effect indicates that no statistically significant changes in road safety have occurred as a result of deregulation. Deregulation of rail transport has only been evaluated in Great Britain and the United States. The experience so far suggests that deregulation of railways is associated with improved rail safety. This association does, however, not necessarily imply a causal relationship.