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Diabetes prevalence in England, 2001--estimates from an epidemiological model.
N G Forouhi1, D Merrick, E Goyder
1Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Observatory, Alcuin Research and Resource Centre, The University of York, York, UK.
Diabetic Medicine : a Journal of the British Diabetic Association
|January 26, 2006
Summary
The total prevalence of diabetes mellitus in England was 4.41% in 2001, affecting over 2 million people. This epidemiological model provides crucial data for healthcare planning and identifies higher prevalence in women and ethnic minority groups.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Health Services Research
Background:
- Diabetes mellitus poses a significant public health challenge globally.
- Accurate prevalence data is essential for effective healthcare planning and resource allocation.
- Existing community surveys may underestimate the true burden of diabetes.
Purpose of the Study:
- To estimate the total prevalence of diabetes mellitus (diagnosed and undiagnosed) in England.
- To provide national, regional, and local-level prevalence data to support health-care planning.
- To develop a model for estimating diabetes prevalence in various population groups.
Main Methods:
- Construction of an epidemiological model using age-sex-ethnic-specific prevalence rates.
- Application of the model to the resident population of England based on the 2001 census.
- Stratification of data to national, regional, and local authority/Primary Care Trust levels.
Main Results:
- An estimated 4.41% of the English population had diabetes in 2001, totaling 2,168,000 individuals.
- Type 2 diabetes accounted for 92.3% of cases, while Type 1 diabetes comprised 7.7%.
- Higher prevalence was observed in women (5.17%), ethnic minority groups (up to 6.63%), and older age groups (13.92% in those 60+).
Conclusions:
- Community survey estimates of diabetes prevalence are likely underestimates.
- The developed model can accurately estimate total diabetes prevalence, aiding the National Service Framework for diabetes.
- The model's utility extends to estimating future prevalence and can be applied across the UK.