Prediction of maxillary third molar impaction in adolescent orthodontic patients

The purpose of this study was to identify risk factors for maxillary third molar impaction in adolescent orthodontic patients. Radiographs made before treatment (T1) and after treatment (T2) and at a minimum of 10 years postretention (T3) of 132 patients that allowed accurate diagnosis of impaction vs eruption of one or both maxillary third molars were evaluated. Although univariate logistic regression revealed that the decision to extract premolars reduced the risk of impaction by 76% (P < .01), this parameter was not included in the final prediction model at T1. Multiple logistic regression analyses revealed that third molar impaction could be predicted at T1 according to the size of the retromolar space and the amount of mesial molar movement that will occur during active appliance therapy, reducing the risk of impaction by 22% and 34% for every millimeter increase in distance, respectively (P < .01). At T2, multiple logistic regression revealed that the odds of impaction were more than 60 times higher (P < .01) if the third molar was angulated mesially as compared with less than 30 degrees distally relative to the occlusal plane and almost five times (P < .05) higher if the third molar was angulated more than 30 degrees distally as compared with less than 30 degrees distally. Similar analyses at T2 showed 29% reduced risk of impaction for every millimeter increase in retromolar space and 18% reduced risk for every degree increase in angle MP/SN (P < .01).