Predictors of outcome in patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma

To evaluate prognostic factors with respect to the outcome in a consecutive series of patients with papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) treated at the same institution during a 20-year-period, and to evaluate further the predictive ability of outcome of the pTNM, AMES and MACIS prognostic systems in these patients.

Two hundred and twenty consecutive patients operated on for primary PTC at the Karolinska Hospital between 1980 and 1999 were examined retrospectively. Patient and tumour characteristics at the time of surgery were compared to the patients' outcomes. Univariate and multiple logistic regression analyses were used to identify independently significant prognostic factors with respect to the outcome. In addition, the classification of the patients according to the pTNM, AMES and MACIS prognostic systems were compared to the outcomes.

At the end of the follow-up period 201 patients were still alive without disease, 6.5% had died from PTC and 2.5% were alive with persisting disease. In 16 patients, radical surgery could not be performed due to extensive tumour growth and/or distant metastases. Recurrences were detected in 14% of the patients considered as radically operated. The strongest independent predictors for local or distant recurrences and poor clinical outcome were the lack of radical surgery and increasing tumour size. In this investigation MACIS appeared to be the better system, regarding efficacy in predicting the outcome of PTC.

Removal of all tumour tissue appears most important to a favorable outcome and in our patients MACIS appears the most useful prognostic system taking completeness of resection into account.