Risk and predictors of motor-performance decline in a normally functioning population-based sample of elderly...

To examine risk and predictors of motor-performance (MP) decline targeting subjects performing normally at an initial observation.

Cohort study.

A subsample of the Italian Longitudinal Study on Aging (aged 65-84).

One thousand fifty-two subjects (mean age+/-standard deviation = 71+/-5, 69% men) with normal MP at baseline.

Six tests (standing up from a chair, stepping up, tandem walk, standing on one leg, walking speed, and steps turning 180 degrees ) were used to assess MP at baseline and after 3 years. Baseline characteristics were potential predictors of MP decline.

Of the 1,052 subjects performing normally at baseline, 166 (15.8%) had declined in MP at follow-up. Older age, female sex, lower education, symptoms of distal symmetrical neuropathy, cognitive impairment without dementia, parkinsonism, heart failure, anemia, depressive symptoms, worse Mini-Mental State Examination score, and lost activities of daily living and instrumental activities of daily living (IADLs) were significantly associated with MP decline in univariate comparisons. Older age (odds ratio (OR) = 3.84, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.14-6.88 comparing age classes > or =80 with 65-69), female sex (OR=1.50, 95% CI = 1.03-2.20), distal symmetric neuropathy (OR = 2.00, 95% CI = 1.03-3.87), depressive symptoms (OR = 1.85, 95% CI = 1.17-2.24), and baseline IADLs (OR = 1.22, 95% CI = 1.08-1.37 for each lost activity) independently predicted MP decline after regression analysis.

In a population-based cohort of elderly people with normal MP, one-sixth declined in 3 years. Age, sex, distal symmetrical neuropathy, depressive symptoms, and baseline IADLs independently predicted this decline. Distal symmetrical neuropathy is underestimated in the clinical and epidemiological evaluation of motor decline in older people.