Related Experiment Video
Updated: Aug 11, 2026

Using Phylogenetic Analysis to Investigate Eukaryotic Gene Origin
Published on: August 14, 2018
Useful probability considerations in genetics: the goat problem with tigers and other applications of Bayes' theorem
1Institut für Klinische Genetik, Medizinische Fakultät Carl Gustav Carus, Technische Universität Dresden, Fetscherstr. 74, 01307, Dresden, Germany. konrad.oexle@tu-dresden.de
Abstract:
Probabilities or risks may change when new information is available. Common sense frequently fails in assessing this change. In such cases, Bayes' theorem may be applied. It is easy to derive and has abundant applications in biology and medicine. Some examples of the application of Bayes' theorem are presented here, such as carrier risk estimation in X-chromosomal disorders, maximal manifestation probability of a dominant trait with unknown penetrance, combination of genetic and non-genetic information, and linkage analysis. The presentation addresses the non-specialist who asks for valid and consistent explanations. The conclusion to be drawn is that Bayes' theorem is an accessible and helpful tool for probability calculations in genetics.
Related Concept Videos
Probability Laws
Hardy-Weinberg Principle
Probability in Statistics
An example of a simple event is a coin toss. The result of a coin toss is either a head or a tail. Here, head and tail are two simple events. These two simple events make up the sample space. Further, the probability of an event occurring falls within the range of 0 to 1. The probability of an...
Binomial Probability Distribution
The outcomes of a binomial experiment fit a binomial probability distribution. A statistical experiment can be classified as a binomial experiment if the following conditions are met:
There are a fixed number of trials. Think of trials as repetitions of an experiment. The letter n denotes the number of trials.
There are only two possible outcomes,...
Testing a Claim about Population Proportion
There are two methods of testing a claim about a population proportion: (1) Using the sample proportion from the data where a binomial distribution is approximated to the normal distribution and (2) Using the binomial probabilities calculated from the data.
The first method uses normal distribution as an approximation to the binomial distribution. The requirements are as follows: sample size is large...
What is Population Genetics?

