Late fertility in Europe: some comparative and historical data

Area of Science:

• Demography
• Sociology
• Reproductive Health

Background:

• Western countries observe a significant rise in late fertility (35+ years).
• This demographic shift prompts an investigation into its underlying causes and future trajectory.
• Historical data, some dating back to the 18th century, are analyzed to contextualize current trends.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the trend of increasing late fertility in Western countries.
• To identify the factors contributing to this demographic phenomenon.
• To assess the likelihood of the continuation of late fertility trends.

Main Methods:

• Late fertility is quantified using age-specific fertility rates (35+).
• Contribution of late fertility to the total fertility rate and the proportion of first births are calculated.
• Historical data for women (Sweden) and men (France) are utilized.

Main Results:

• Despite a recent increase since the 1980s, current late fertility levels are historically low.
• The rise is primarily attributed to postponed childbearing, a component of broader demographic event postponement.
• An increase in very late fertility (40+) is observed, though limited, with age 45 appearing as a practical limit.

Conclusions:

• Late fertility is projected to rise as long as fertility rates among younger individuals decline.
• The increase will predominantly involve women under 40 and men under 45.
• Biological constraints and social norms likely contribute to the plateauing of very late fertility.