Quantification and modeling of crop losses: a review of purposes

This review considers the cascade of events that link injuries caused by plant pathogens on crop stands to possible (quantitative and qualitative) crop losses (damage), and to the resulting economic losses. To date, much research has focused on injury control to prevent this cascade of events from occurring. However, this cascade involves a complex succession of components and processes whereby knowledge on crop loss generates entry points for management. Proposed here is a framework linking different types of knowledge on crop loss to a range of decision categories, from tactical to strategic short- or long-term. Important advances in this field are now under way, including a probabilistic treatment of the injury-damage relationship, or analyses of the sources of uncertainty attached to some components of the decision process. Management of injury profiles, rather than individual injuries, and shifts in dimensionality of crop losses are anticipated to contribute to the design of sustainable agricultural systems, and address global issues concerning food security and food safety.