Long-term recurrence and death rates after acute pancreatitis

The aim of this study was to compare long-term recurrence and death rates after a first episode of acute pancreatitis in patients with and without gallstones. Additionally, it was of interest to find out if there were factors predictive of readmission or death.

Over a period of 3 years (1995 to 1998), 155 patients admitted with a first attack of acute pancreatitis were included in the study. They followed a specific protocol (ultrasound within 24 h, laboratory tests, Ranson scoring and patients with severe pancreatitis computed tomography scans). In gallstones, pancreatitis, either ERCP or cholecystectomy, was performed at admission or in the case of the latter within 4 weeks. A follow-up was done in January 2002.

Forty-one percent of the patients without gallstones were readmitted to hospital during the period of follow-up compared to 10% in the group of patients with gallstones. Using multivariate analysis, no factors were significantly predictive of readmission.

We found an identical mortality rate of 15% in the two groups, the only predictive factor being age.