Predictors of abstinence and nonproblem drinking after 12-step treatment in Sweden

The aims of this study were to identify individual predictors of 12 months continuous abstinence and nonproblem drinking after Swedish inpatient Minnesota Model treatment and to evaluate the outcome variance explained by pretreatment, within-treatment, and posttreatment factors for each outcome, separately and in conjunction.

One-hundred and twenty-nine men and 47 women were interviewed on admission to Swedish Minnesota Model treatment and after 12 months. Two interviewers who were not involved in treatment delivery performed structured interviews. Statistical analyses included bivariate and multivariate logistic regression models applied to pair-wise contrasts of three types of treatment outcome.

The final multivariate models for the three pair-wise contrasts explained 71% (abstinence vs problem drinking), 44% (nonproblem drinking vs problem drinking), and 25% (abstinence vs. nonproblem drinking) of outcome variance. Abstention and nonproblem drinking were both differentiated from problem drinking by the completion of aftercare, satisfaction with treatment, and number of public addiction care contacts. When contrasted with nonproblem drinking, abstention was predicted by the endorsement of a baseline goal to stop drinking and a higher degree of posttreatment affiliation with mutual-help groups.

Results from this study support the fact that treatment is only one of many factors that contributes to an outcome and suggests issues that may need consideration in similar treatment settings.