[Health care financing: is it enough and appropriate?]

The object of this short paper is to present the results of Spanish public health care expenditures projections until 2013 according to the expected impact of the main demographic and technological health cost drivers.

Future annual health expenditures are estimated using a simple method based on the decomposition of the past main growth factors in two scenarios. The main cost drivers considered were the following: demography, which includes the increasing number of people and the impact of population ageing; the increase in the price of health care inputs above the general price level; and the impact of changes in medical practice related with expanding medical technology.

In 2013, public health care expenditure may be around 5.7% and 6% of gross domestic product (GDP); that is, at least, between 0.24 and 0.53 additional GDP points will be spent on public health care. The main factor responsible for the future expenditure increase will continue to be the increase in the average health service intensity, followed by demographic factors. In the base-case scenario, public expenditure increase until 2013 will be compatible with a real 2.5% annual increase in consumption of non-health goods and services. In order to finance the future costs, the Spanish population will have to devote to public health expenditure less than 7% of income increase until 2013.

Despite being important, the expected Spanish GDP growth until 2013 may be enough to finance the increase in public health expenditure as a result of the impact of demographic changes. Expanding medical technology is expected to continue being the main driver of future costs.